Disclaimer: This blog post is about baseball. If you do not like baseball, or sports in general, it is okay to skip this post, but I do encourage that you keep reading The Wise Fool as this is not all I write about. See you next time...I hope.
This Decade, the Red Sox and Phillies have been to two World Series each with a combination of home-grown players like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Trot Nixon, Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, Jon Lester, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, and Brett Meyers as well as key free agent and trade acquisitions like David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Johnny Damon, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Jayson Werth, Cliff Lee, Brad Lidge, Jamie Moyer, and Pedro Martinez (for both teams). The Yankees have not developed star players from their farm system since Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, and Rivera in the mid-90s.
What is perhaps even more impressive are the small market teams that stay competitive. The Oakland Athletics have not been good in a few years but they had an impressive run a few years ago that was built on well developed pitching from within their farm system like Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson and stars like Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, and Eric Chavez. The most consistent small market team the past couple decades has been the Minnesota Twins. That team's front office has it down to a science. Only the Minnesota Twins could lose star players like Torii Hunter and Johan Santana in the same season and get better. Teams like this are much easier to root for after the Sox have been eliminated.
Here are my predictions for the 2010 season. I am almost always wrong when it comes to MVP winners and stuff but last year I said during spring training that the Twins would win the American League Central Division and nobody believed me, so this year I am putting my predictions in writing and will do a follow-up in November.
National League West:
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2345This is the year that the Giants finally get over the post-Barry Bonds doldrums and win the division. They have one of the best pitching rotations in all of Major League Baseball. Tim Lincecum is coming off back to back Cy Young Award seasons and he is only 25. If Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, and Mark DeRosa improve the lineup as they are expected to, then they could easily get past the Dodgers. Los Angelas is in a similar situation to the Tigers in the American League, where they had a pretty good roster already and did not do a whole lot in the off-season, but the other teams in the division did make improvements. The team that will give them the most trouble in the division is Colorado. If Brandon Webb pitches like he did in 2007 and 2008, all bets are off and Arizona could be in the mix of this competitive division. If the Padres do not improve from last year, a lot of people expect to see Adrian Gonzalez to be wearing a Red Sox uniform by the July 15 trade deadline.
National League Central:
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23456
Right now, I think that the Cardinals are the second best team in the National League. Mark McGwire should do a good job as a hitting coach if his presence does not cause too much of a media distraction to the team. Albert Pujols is still going to be a major contender for the NL MVP. I would not be surprised if the Cubs, Brewers, or Reds made a run at the division, too. I am not expecting the Pirates and Astros will not be very good this year. This is a division with a lot of talented players that make fantasy league managers happy like Pujols, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Alfonso Soriano, Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, and Matt Holliday, but there are not many balanced teams. St. Louis is the most balanced team and even they struggled offensively last year.
National League East:
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2345The Philadelphia Phillies are still the team to beat in the National League. Right now, I think they are the only National League team good enough to compete with the elite teams in the American League. With the addition of ace pitcher Roy Halladay and third baseman Placido Polanco, the Phillies are even better on paper than they were last year. The Braves made a late run at the wild card last year but fell short. I expect them to be playing hard in Bobby Cox's final managerial year. The Mets have a lot of talented players that they spent a lot of money on, but unlike the Yankees, the pieces have not all fit together for a full season. The Marlins have a lot of young talent, but I cannot see them finishing higher than third in this division. The Nationals still have a long way to go before being considered a threat.
National League Wild Card:
This is a tough one because the National League is very evenly matched. With the exception of the Phillies, most other teams are pretty competitive with one another. This does not mean that they are very good. A lot of the wild card caliber teams in the National League would have trouble beating the last place teams in the American League. Right now, I like the Rockies because of how they played the second half of last season, but they were also the team that streaked their way into the World Series in 2007 and finished 4th the next year. If the Cubs can return to their 2007-2008 form, they might even win the division. The Braves, Reds, and Brewers have been on the cusp for a few years. It should be interesting but I still don't think any of these teams can beat the Phillies.
National League Individual Awards:
Batting Title: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
Cy Young Award: Roy Halladay, Phillies
MVP: Chase Utley, Phillies
Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy, Giants
Comeback Player of the Year: Barry Zito, Giants
American League West:
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234The Angels are still good, but this year, the Mariners are going to be better. The Angels lost John Lackey to the Red Sox, Vladimir Guerrero to the Rangers, and Chone Figgins to the Mariners. Losing key free agents, especially to division rivals and the team they always play against in October, will force Los Angelas to take a step backwards this year. The Mariners made some great moves to make a pretty good team into a championship contender. In addition to Figgins, they added Milton Bradley to their lineup. If Bradley plays like he did in Texas, and not like he did in Chicago, this is a great signing. He is an extremely talented player who will be an asset to the team if he keeps his emotions in check and does not lash out at the fans the way he did with the Cubs. Figgins and Bradley are joining a lineup that already has future Hall-of-Famers Ken Griffey Jr., and Ichiro Suzuki. Another great move by Seattle was getting Cliff Lee in the three team trade that sent Roy Halladay to Philadelphia. Lee and Felix Hernandez, who got a contract extension through 2014, will make one of the best pitching combinations in all of Major League Baseball. Those two pitchers put Seattle in the same category as the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and Giants as far as pitching is concerned. The Texas Rangers could be a wild card contender if stars Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Vladimir Guerrero stay healthy. I don't think they have the pitching to get that far in October, though. Oakland has some young talent but they are still a year or two away from being good again.
American League Central:
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2345The Twins stunned everybody (except me) when they won the division last year in a one game playoff against the Tigers. Joe Mauer had a phenomenal season last year when he won the Batting Title, Gold Glove and the MVP and now it looks as though he will be in Minnesota for his entire career with the contract extension they gave him. When Minnesota made the playoffs last year, they did it without Justin Morneau and heading into this season, they looked ever better than before... and then Joe Nathan got hurt. Nathan's injury would be devastating for most other teams, but Minnesota always seems to be ready for stuff like this. Their minor league pitchers are trained well for major league situations. Ron Gardenhire is once again going to be a serious candidate for Manager of the Year. The Twins stiffest competition in the division will be the Chicago White Sox. Ozzie Guillen is one of the best managers around and he will be determined to make his team play at a higher level down the stretch than they did last year. Detroit did not do much to improve this off-season while Minnesota and Chicago did. The Royals have one of the elite pitchers in Major League Baseball in defending Cy Young winner Zach Greinke, but their lack of offence will hurt them. Cleveland has really fallen off the map since 2007. Two years ago, they were a game away from winning the pennant before the Red Sox made one of their great comebacks. Since then C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez have departed and Indians fans can only hope that Shaq can hit with power and LeBron can throw a slider. The Browns will be better than the Indians this year.
American League East:
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2345As much as I would like to think that the Red Sox will be the 1st place team in the AL East, I need to see them play against the Yankees first. The Yankees are the defending champions, and even though they bought it instead of earn it like true champions should, they need to be treated like champions until somebody can knock them off. The Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays might be the three best teams in all of MLB, but they can't all make the playoffs. The Sox improved their starting rotation so they can compete directly with New York. John Lackey is an ace pitcher on most other teams, but with Boston he is third in the rotation behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. If Daisuke Matsuzaka ever learns to pitch in a Red Sox uniform the way he pitches in a Japanese national uniform, they would have a fourth ace. If Clay Bucholz can consistently be the pitcher people think he is, then they would have yet another ace. Also filling his niche on the team is Tim Wakefield, the old steady knuckleballer who is getting closer and closer to the Red Sox all career wins record that is currently held by Roger Clemens. Defensively, the Red Sox have improved with Mike Cameron in center field and Jacoby Ellsbury moving to left. Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro will tighten up the left side of the infield. I am not thrilled about the signing of Scutaro, but hopefully it is just a quick fix for when the Sox steal Derek Jeter from the Yankees when he becomes a free agent after the season (Wouldn't it be awesome to see Yankees fans squirm when their golden boy is wearing a Sox uniform. I will definitely buy a Jeter Red Sox jersey just for that. It's about time that one of theirs comes to Boston the way Babe Ruth, Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, and Johnny Damon went to New York, but that's another post for another time.). The Orioles, I believe, will finish above last for the first time in a few year. The Jays are not going anywhere fast. Halliday was all they had and he is in Philadelphia now.
Fun Fact: With Joe Girardi, Terry Francona, Joe Maddon, and Cito Gaston, the American League East has four managers who have managed at least one World Series. This is more than any other division. Maybe the Orioles should bring back Earl Weaver so all five teams would have a World Series manager.
American League Wild Card:
The Wild Card race in the American League will be very competitive like the National League, but unlike the National League, these Wild Card contenders have a shot at winning it all. The Red Sox and Rays could just as easily be division champions and there is also a chance that the Yankees are the Wild Card team. The American League is top to bottom a superior league and the middle-of-the-pack teams have a good chance at taking down a team like New York.
American League Individual Awards:
Batting Title: Joe Mauer, Twins
Cy Young Award: Jon Lester, Red Sox
MVP: Derek Jeter, Yankees
Manager of the Year: Don Wakamatsu, Mariners
Comeback Player of the Year: Jake Peavy, White Sox
Post Season Predictions:
NLCS: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Fransisco Giants
NLCS MVP: Chase Utley
ALCS: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
ALCS MVP: Kevin Youkilis if Red Sox win; Nick Swisher if Yankees win.
World Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox or New York Yankees
World Series MVP: Roy Halladay if Phillies win; Mark Teixeira if Yankees win; J.D. Drew if Red Sox win.
I really think it is too close to call in the American league without looking like a biased Sox fan (I'm not cocky, I just know we're the best), but I really thin that the next World Series chanpion will be one of the last three champions. The Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies are the three most complete teams in all of baseball. It will be an interesting season to follow. Only time will tell how this actually turns out. I really hope the Yankees are not as good as they were a year ago, but that is out of my control. I would have gone on a tangent about how I do not like the Yankees, but this post would have been really long. If they are in 1st place in the beginning of May, I will probably make a whole post just about how much I hate the Yankees. Feel free to comment with your thoughts about my picks and what you think will happen.
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